
Rainfall extremes drive cocoa yield losses across the tropics.
There is a growing need for human-centered weather and climate forecasts that provide actionable information to farmers and other stakeholders. Cocoa, which sustains the livelihoods of nearly six million smallholder farmers, illustrates this need: Recent production shortfalls have threatened incomes, yet their underlying causes remain unclear, with explanations invoking both climatic and nonclimatic factors. Here we show that heavy rainfall, rather than temperature or mean water availability, is
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